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Friday, 26 February 2010

Narrowing at the polls pre-general election should have been expected

The Conservative party's representative support percentage in the polls, a proportion of the overall figures not too far ahead of Labour's, makes complete sense in light of how social stigmas and scapegoating apply circumstantially in the UK.

The latest information from the polls, specifically the ComRes poll commissioned by the Daily Politics Show, indicates a distinct narrowing of the gap between the terrible Tories and limping Labour.

The drop to 5 points into the lead against its top political rival may prove startling to some Conservative MPs, whose party circa last year's spring conference attained a strident 19% lead in its favour.

Some would argue that this stage prior to the catapulting of the electoral campaign is critical in preconditioning the ability of both major parties to balloon their support base. The better lead either party secures beforehand, the stronger the chances are of them winning, as well as them bursting the other's balloon.

Of course, no one should be specially surprised by the faltering Tory advantage. Their pole position ahead of the frequently-lampooned Labour party is probably more the product of socio-economic events than raw and consistent public appeal.

The Tories might happen to look back a year or so and notice that their initially appeasing boost above Labour in the opinion polls surged around the time when the 2008 recession was hitting the UK hard.

No doubt this dynamic change in economic stability, shifting global financial gain to brutal losses, had a part to play in granting more public support for the shadow cabinet and its party as Brown was forced to note the bill and bite the bullet. When the shadow was cast Brown was directly beneath it, and with this unfortunate timing came the rain of the blame game. Meanwhile, Cameron was left to count his blessings.

It is important to recognise that Brown did in fact manage to garner a little support from the British public as he fought to reduce the impact of bank meltdown in December 2008 - so he's not the total nitwit we're told he is.

To imply the reverse is actually fairer, as Brown no doubt has the nous to formulate good aims and work towards solidifying the substantial growth required for a healthy economy to exist. Sadly, he just can't seem to get a grip.

But the omens of an electoral flop for Mr Brown and Labour are beginning to fall back into the haze of the bigger political picture, in which both powerhouse parties are seen to be struggling to gather their supporters and comply with their wishes.

Cameron will obviously disagree with other Com Res results which suggest 36% of voters who participated in the poll study don't know what his party represents.

Other prominent questions from the poll study were: I know what the Conservative party stands for and I like it (28%) and I know what the Conservative party stands for and I don't like it (36%).

Also highlighted was the question "The Conservatives are likely to win the next election". Of those who answered 60% agreed, 33% disagreed and 7% failed to assert their response.

If the current situation is anything to go by it would appear that regardless of the party voted in in May, despite the excitement felt by one and the humiliation by the other, the public will remain solemn and in some cases indignant at the result.

I would suggest that this forecast is made feasible due to the fact that, as mentioned above, not many people really know what the prospective parties for the new administration will deliver. Clearly what is demanded of them is that they do their job. Opinions on what is entailed in their job will also differ.

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